Predictions
Predictions
With a month to go, I thought I'd make some picks and see where everybody stands on these:
PA: Santorum v. Casey. Despite the double digit leads in the polls, Bob Casey Jr. hasn't broken that key 50% threshold. That would suggest that there are a lot of undecided voters out there that haven't broken yet. I think I lot of them will swing to Santorum, but it won't be enough. Democratic pickup.
RI: Whitehorse v. Chaffee. A RINO versus a Democrat. If I'm a voter, I want the real thing. Whitehorse picks it up. Democratic Pickup
MI: Stabenow v. Bouchard. A pathetic incumbent in a state that has a strong anti-incumbency streak with a governor fighting for her life and the best you can do for a candidate is Mike Bouchard. Libby Dole is an awful Senate Campaign Chair just for the fact that with such favorable conditions for the GOP, they couldn't get a candidate that could win. It's a shame, because any decent GOP candidate would have knocked her out. The gap will narrow, but it will be a wider margin of victory than the governor will have. Democratic Retention.
MT: Burns v. Tester. I don't think Tester will pull it off. Though Burns is a buffoon who should have retired years ago (I can think of about 35 Senators I can make that statement about as well), Tester is a poor match for the electorate there and hasn't broken 50%. This race will tighten up, and tie goes to the GOP turnout machine. Republican Retention.
NJ: Menendez v. Kean. Despite the polls, the scandals plaguing the Dems in NJ, Kean isn't going to pull it off. Too many Dems, an passive acceptance of corruption means Menendez squeaks by. Democratic Retention.
MD: Steele V. Cardin. Cardin is having trouble breaking 50% consistently in the polls, which means a lot more money will need to be sunk into keeping this seat. This is a Democratic state, and Steele will keep it somewhat close, and that's all. Democratic Retention.
MN: Kennedy v. Klouchbar. Klobuchar has solid double digit poll leads, and is consistently over 50% in the polls. Should cruise to retain Dayton's seat for the Dems. Democratic Retention.
WA: McGavick v. Cantwell. Same story as Minnesota. Democratic Retention.
MO: Talent v. McCaskill. Although tied, I think Talent will pull it out. Better have the lawyers ready for "irregularities" in St. Louis though, it will be a long night there. Republican Retention.
OH: Dewine v. Brown. Similarities between Michigan and Ohio abound, but this time everybody in Ohio is ticked with Republicans, and rightfully so (Mr. tax and spend Bob Taft, thank you!). This has been a tossup so far, but I think turnout decides this, and I say DeWine in a squeaker. Republican Retention.
TN: Corker v. Ford. Though a tossup right now, Ford has trouble breaking 50%, not good. GOP turnout saves Frist's former seat for Corker, though much closer than originally expected months ago. Republican Retention.
Predictions
With a month to go, I thought I'd make some picks and see where everybody stands on these:
PA: Santorum v. Casey. Despite the double digit leads in the polls, Bob Casey Jr. hasn't broken that key 50% threshold. That would suggest that there are a lot of undecided voters out there that haven't broken yet. I think I lot of them will swing to Santorum, but it won't be enough. Democratic pickup.
RI: Whitehorse v. Chaffee. A RINO versus a Democrat. If I'm a voter, I want the real thing. Whitehorse picks it up. Democratic Pickup
MI: Stabenow v. Bouchard. A pathetic incumbent in a state that has a strong anti-incumbancy streak with a governor fighting for her life and the best you can do for a candidate is Mike Bouchard. Libby Dole is an awful Senate Campaign Chair just for the fact that with such favourable conditions for the GOP, they couldn't get a candidate that could win. It's a shame, because any decent GOP candidate would have knocked her out. The gap will narrow, but it will be a wider margin of victory than the governor will have. Democratic Rentention.
MT: Burns v. Tester. I don't think Tester will pull it off. Though Burns is a buffoon who should have retired years ago (I can think of about 35 Senators I can make that statement about as well), Tester is a poor match for the electorate there and hasn't broken 50%. This race will tighten up, and tie goes to the GOP turnout machine. Republican Retention.
NJ: Menendez v. Kean. Despite the polls, the scandals plauging the Dems in NJ, Kean isn't going to pull it off. Too many Dems, an passive acceptence of corruption means Menendez squeaks by. Democratic Rentention.
MD: Steele V. Cardin. Cardin is having trouble breaking 50% consistently in the polls, which means a lot more money will need to be sunk into keeping this seat. This is a Democratic state, and Steele will keep it somewhat close, and that's all. Democratic Retention.
MN: Kennedy v. Klouchbar. Klobuchar has solid double digit poll leads, and is consistently over 50% in the polls. Should cruise to retain Dayton's seat for the Dems. Democratic Retention.
WA: McGavick v. Cantwell. Same story as Minnesota. Democratic Retention.
MO: Talent v. McCaskill. Although tied, I think Talent will pull it out. Better have the lawyers ready for "irregularities" in St. Louis though, it will be a long night there. Republican Retention.
OH: Dewine v. Brown. Similarities between Michigan and Ohio abound, but this time everybody in Ohio is ticked with Republicans, and rightfully so (Mr. tax and spend Bob Taft, thank you!). This has been a tossup so far, but I think turnout decides this, and I say DeWine in a squeaker. Republican Retention.
TN: Corker v. Ford. Though a tossup right now, Ford has trouble breaking 50%, not good. GOP turnout saves Frist's former seat for Corker, though much closer than originally expected months ago. Republican Retnention.
VA: Webb v. Allen. Allen has run a terrible campaign, but Webb has a run a worse one. Squandered opportunities and bad judgements have really hurt Jim Webb. Allen has a huge money advantage, and will have a comfortable victory in light of all the problems his campaign had. Republican Retention.
With a month to go, I thought I'd make some picks and see where everybody stands on these:
PA: Santorum v. Casey. Despite the double digit leads in the polls, Bob Casey Jr. hasn't broken that key 50% threshold. That would suggest that there are a lot of undecided voters out there that haven't broken yet. I think I lot of them will swing to Santorum, but it won't be enough. Democratic pickup.
RI: Whitehorse v. Chaffee. A RINO versus a Democrat. If I'm a voter, I want the real thing. Whitehorse picks it up. Democratic Pickup
MI: Stabenow v. Bouchard. A pathetic incumbent in a state that has a strong anti-incumbency streak with a governor fighting for her life and the best you can do for a candidate is Mike Bouchard. Libby Dole is an awful Senate Campaign Chair just for the fact that with such favorable conditions for the GOP, they couldn't get a candidate that could win. It's a shame, because any decent GOP candidate would have knocked her out. The gap will narrow, but it will be a wider margin of victory than the governor will have. Democratic Retention.
MT: Burns v. Tester. I don't think Tester will pull it off. Though Burns is a buffoon who should have retired years ago (I can think of about 35 Senators I can make that statement about as well), Tester is a poor match for the electorate there and hasn't broken 50%. This race will tighten up, and tie goes to the GOP turnout machine. Republican Retention.
NJ: Menendez v. Kean. Despite the polls, the scandals plaguing the Dems in NJ, Kean isn't going to pull it off. Too many Dems, an passive acceptance of corruption means Menendez squeaks by. Democratic Retention.
MD: Steele V. Cardin. Cardin is having trouble breaking 50% consistently in the polls, which means a lot more money will need to be sunk into keeping this seat. This is a Democratic state, and Steele will keep it somewhat close, and that's all. Democratic Retention.
MN: Kennedy v. Klouchbar. Klobuchar has solid double digit poll leads, and is consistently over 50% in the polls. Should cruise to retain Dayton's seat for the Dems. Democratic Retention.
WA: McGavick v. Cantwell. Same story as Minnesota. Democratic Retention.
MO: Talent v. McCaskill. Although tied, I think Talent will pull it out. Better have the lawyers ready for "irregularities" in St. Louis though, it will be a long night there. Republican Retention.
OH: Dewine v. Brown. Similarities between Michigan and Ohio abound, but this time everybody in Ohio is ticked with Republicans, and rightfully so (Mr. tax and spend Bob Taft, thank you!). This has been a tossup so far, but I think turnout decides this, and I say DeWine in a squeaker. Republican Retention.
TN: Corker v. Ford. Though a tossup right now, Ford has trouble breaking 50%, not good. GOP turnout saves Frist's former seat for Corker, though much closer than originally expected months ago. Republican Retention.
Predictions
With a month to go, I thought I'd make some picks and see where everybody stands on these:
PA: Santorum v. Casey. Despite the double digit leads in the polls, Bob Casey Jr. hasn't broken that key 50% threshold. That would suggest that there are a lot of undecided voters out there that haven't broken yet. I think I lot of them will swing to Santorum, but it won't be enough. Democratic pickup.
RI: Whitehorse v. Chaffee. A RINO versus a Democrat. If I'm a voter, I want the real thing. Whitehorse picks it up. Democratic Pickup
MI: Stabenow v. Bouchard. A pathetic incumbent in a state that has a strong anti-incumbancy streak with a governor fighting for her life and the best you can do for a candidate is Mike Bouchard. Libby Dole is an awful Senate Campaign Chair just for the fact that with such favourable conditions for the GOP, they couldn't get a candidate that could win. It's a shame, because any decent GOP candidate would have knocked her out. The gap will narrow, but it will be a wider margin of victory than the governor will have. Democratic Rentention.
MT: Burns v. Tester. I don't think Tester will pull it off. Though Burns is a buffoon who should have retired years ago (I can think of about 35 Senators I can make that statement about as well), Tester is a poor match for the electorate there and hasn't broken 50%. This race will tighten up, and tie goes to the GOP turnout machine. Republican Retention.
NJ: Menendez v. Kean. Despite the polls, the scandals plauging the Dems in NJ, Kean isn't going to pull it off. Too many Dems, an passive acceptence of corruption means Menendez squeaks by. Democratic Rentention.
MD: Steele V. Cardin. Cardin is having trouble breaking 50% consistently in the polls, which means a lot more money will need to be sunk into keeping this seat. This is a Democratic state, and Steele will keep it somewhat close, and that's all. Democratic Retention.
MN: Kennedy v. Klouchbar. Klobuchar has solid double digit poll leads, and is consistently over 50% in the polls. Should cruise to retain Dayton's seat for the Dems. Democratic Retention.
WA: McGavick v. Cantwell. Same story as Minnesota. Democratic Retention.
MO: Talent v. McCaskill. Although tied, I think Talent will pull it out. Better have the lawyers ready for "irregularities" in St. Louis though, it will be a long night there. Republican Retention.
OH: Dewine v. Brown. Similarities between Michigan and Ohio abound, but this time everybody in Ohio is ticked with Republicans, and rightfully so (Mr. tax and spend Bob Taft, thank you!). This has been a tossup so far, but I think turnout decides this, and I say DeWine in a squeaker. Republican Retention.
TN: Corker v. Ford. Though a tossup right now, Ford has trouble breaking 50%, not good. GOP turnout saves Frist's former seat for Corker, though much closer than originally expected months ago. Republican Retnention.
VA: Webb v. Allen. Allen has run a terrible campaign, but Webb has a run a worse one. Squandered opportunities and bad judgements have really hurt Jim Webb. Allen has a huge money advantage, and will have a comfortable victory in light of all the problems his campaign had. Republican Retention.
Looking at those races, I have two pickups for the Dems, and a possible third (pick one of MO
or OH). Figure loss of 9, 10 seats in the House. Despite the polls, it is really difficult to win in gerrymandered districts that are GOP friendly in most cases.
posted by Mitch @ 8:07 AM
7 comments
7 Comments:
Mitch,
Sorry I can't provide any give and take on this. My record on predicting political races sucks. I am predicting a Granholm victory for one reason: DeVos has spent so much money advertising for the last ten months, he has alienated much of his base. As we have stated before, Stabenow is so lame she doesn't even know an opening when one presents itself. She and Bouchard had a debate and he tried to rip her as a spendthrift for voting for various appropriations. She should have pointed out that her vote was irrelevant as long as the Republicans controlled both houses and the presidency. If elected, Bouchard would be expected to get on board with the senate leadership or suffer the consequences. This counter-attack never occurred to her.
Your observations are absolutely correct. Lackluster doesn't begin to describe the candidates in Michigan, which is a shame.
It's a shame that it is to late to file a "stealth" proposition for the electorate this November. It would state that an insane person may not hold public office in Michigan. That sounds reasonable on its face, but there is a hook: Catch 22. If you run for office in Michigan, you must be insane; therefore you may not take office if you win. Think of the money the taxpayers will save.
Mitch,
I have decided that the most likely scenerio for the election is that the Republicans hold both houses. I have valid reasons for saying this. First, the religious right will get out 90%+ of their voters on pain of Hell. Second, the moderates are so confused and pissed off that they will have, at most, a 60% turn-out. Third, the left will have a lot of intensity but many of them aren't registered or won't show up at the polls because they have to pass the bar to get there. The religious right/wingnut segment is roughly 27% of the pool of wich 24-25% will vote-straight Republican. The left, 18% of the total, will turn out 9-10%, of which 8% will go Democratic, 1% will go to others, and .5% will vote Republican just so the Dems can't be blamed for anything. The remaining 55%, the middle, will provide 33%, based on a 60% turnout.
This gives us an amazingly large turnout of 67% of which at least 24% is committed conservative. Even if the middle went 70% Democratic, the Republicans will have over 51% of the vote.
Finally, we have yet to see just how well the Republicans have done at gerrymandering the districts; I suspect quite well indeed. I have read one study that estimates there are only 46 seats in play, not all republican.
Until the middle and lower-class
starts voting its pocketbook again it will be nearly impossible to for the Dems to unseat the Republicans.
The resons for a potential Republican win are more involved than that. RNC Chairman Ken Melhman has run the past two campaigns on the presumption that the "real" number of undecided voters, i.e. the ones that are likely voters, represent less than 10% of the voting electorat. So, his premise is not to wast time on that and focus more so on GOTV on your base. This is why the last couple of elections are so polarizing on so many levels. If the Democrats went back to their more "traditional" mantra - economically liberal and strong on national defense and social issues, I think that the numbers would swing back in their favour. Alas, the Democrats have taken an incorrect interpretation of those past two elections and have succumbed to the more baser elements of their party as well.
Let's throw this into the mix. Are there significantly fewer voting machines in precincts that are predominately Democratic in states with Republican controlled voting administrations? Are there significantly more time-consuming challenges in Democratic precincts? Was there a phone campaign by people with access to traffic violation records informing those who were likely to vote Democratic that they would have to pay their fines or be arrested if they attempted to vote? Can a Diebold machine be programmed to flip votes? Were voting roles purged of active likely Democratic voters in Florida and Ohio? I don't know the answers to the above questions but if they are true, it would take a massive Democratic margin to eke out a victory. It will be important if the margin of error in the polls is exceeded once again in key districts with the actual vote either favoring the Republican candidate or favoring the Democratic candidate by less than expected. There should also be a post-election analysis performed to determine actual turnout and likely winners.
Mitch, you might be the only person who thinks DeWine wins in Ohio.
Of course I might be discounting the imapct of Diebold voting machines on GOP vote totals in the Buckeye State/
Post a Comment
<< Home